A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
