It was 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six matches, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, while the victories have stacked up.
According to the data, in only two games has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team which has put together ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
